Trade Growth Trends and Structural Changes
- In 2024, China's foreign trade import and export reversed the year-on-year decline of last year. In the first 11 months, the national import and export increased by 4.9% year-on-year, with exports growing by 6.7% and imports increasing by 2.4% year-on-year. The overall trend was high at the beginning and low later, and the growth rate of foreign trade is expected to pick up in December.
- The trade structure is continuously optimized. China's import and export with countries along the Belt and Road Initiative has been growing rapidly. In the first 11 months of 2024, it increased by 6%, and its proportion has risen. Trade with Europe and the United States has also recovered. In the first 11 months, the total value of trade with the European Union and the United States increased by 1.3% and 4.2% year-on-year respectively.
Enterprise Competition and Overseas Expansion Trends
- Competition in some export industries is fierce, and even "price wars" have emerged. However, the Central Economic Work Conference has clearly stated the comprehensive rectification of "involutionary" competition, which is expected to optimize the competitive situation of foreign trade enterprises.
- The pace of enterprises going global is accelerating. From January to October 2024, China's total outward direct investment in all industries reached 965.89 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.9%. The enterprises going global are mainly private enterprises in coastal areas. The main export destinations are Europe, the United States, Southeast Asia, etc. The ways of going global include setting up branches, carrying out cooperation, mergers and acquisitions, equity participation, etc.
Upgrading of Commodity Structure
- The export product structure is being upgraded and optimized. In the first three quarters of 2024, China's export of mechanical and electrical products reached 11.03 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8%, accounting for 59.3% of the total export value. The exports of high-end equipment, integrated circuits, automobiles, household appliances, etc. have increased significantly. In addition, sports and outdoor products, and the "new three products" have also performed outstandingly, becoming new growth points for exports.
Acceleration of Digitalization and E-commerce
- In 2024, China's cross-border e-commerce market is still showing a strong growth trend. In the first three quarters, the import and export reached 1.88 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.5%, both hitting new highs. More and more traditional foreign trade enterprises are transforming and getting involved in cross-border e-commerce.
Policy Support and Market Expectations
- The intensity of policy support is constantly increasing. Departments such as the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs have successively issued a series of measures to support foreign trade. More incremental policy measures in the future will strongly support foreign trade exports and enterprises going global.
- Although there are uncertainties such as trade protectionism, there is still a certain degree of market expectation for the future. Some enterprises, out of the risk-avoiding anticipation of the trade situation next year, have the phenomenon of "rushing to export" before the end of the year.
