Changes in Trade Scale and Growth Rate
- Overall scale growth: In 2024, the global trade volume is expected to increase by $1 trillion year-on-year, reaching $33 trillion and hitting a new historical high. However, there are significant differences in the growth rates between service trade and goods trade. The year-on-year growth rate of goods trade is only 2%, which has not yet recovered to the highest level in 2022, while the year-on-year growth rate of service trade is as high as 7%, accounting for about half of the global trade growth share.
- Intensified imbalance in development: The trade gap between developed and developing countries has widened. In 2024, developed countries showed a more stable situation, with their import and export volumes increasing by 3% and 2% month-on-month respectively, while developing countries saw a 1% month-on-month decrease in imports, and South-South trade volume also shrank by 1% month-on-month.
Changes in Trade Structure
- Adjustment of industrial structure: The trade volumes of traditional industrial sectors have declined significantly. For example, in the third quarter of 2024, the energy trade volume decreased by 2% month-on-month, the metal trade volume decreased by 3% month-on-month, and the automobile trade volume decreased by 3% month-on-month. Meanwhile, high value-added industries are becoming an important engine for driving the growth of global goods trade. In the third quarter of 2024, the trade in information and communication technology products and clothing witnessed the most significant increases, with month-on-month growth rates of 13% and 14% respectively.
- The rise of service trade: The growth rate of service trade has increased significantly, and its proportion and influence in global trade have been constantly rising, becoming the main driving factor for global trade growth. Developing countries still have considerable potential for releasing their trade potential in information and communication technology and digital delivery services.
Changes in the Regional Trade Pattern
- The solid position of developed countries: Developed economies have more advantages in service trade. The trade growth driven mainly by service trade in 2024 has also aggravated the trade gap between developed and developing countries. Developed countries and regions such as the United States and the European Union still occupy important positions in global trade, and their trade policies and economic situations have a great impact on the global trade pattern.
- Differentiation among emerging economies: Some emerging economies, such as China and India, are gradually strengthening their influence in global trade, but they also face numerous challenges, such as trade frictions and geopolitical tensions. Some emerging economies encountered difficulties in 2024, while others showed highlights and opportunities in high-growth fields. For example, the trade growth in the East Asian region has stagnated, but some emerging economies still have good performances in fields such as the information and communication technology industry and clothing trade.
Changes in Trade Policies and the Environment
- The rise of trade protectionism: Some countries have seen an intensified tendency towards trade protectionism and have adopted a series of trade restriction measures, such as imposing tariffs and setting up trade barriers, resulting in continuous escalation of global trade frictions. Many negotiation works of the World Trade Organization have fallen into a deadlock, and its dispute settlement mechanism has also been damaged, with the multilateral trading system being strongly impacted.
- Increased policy uncertainty: The tariff policies of the United States, the exchange rate of the US dollar, and the uncertainties of the US macroeconomic policies have all brought new variables and pressures to global trade. Enterprises from various countries are facing rising trade risks and operating costs.
