Recently, the news that Donald Trump, the Republican presidential candidate and former president of the United States, won the 2024 U.S. presidential election has drawn widespread attention around the world, and his potential impact on the field of foreign trade has also become a hot topic of discussion among all sectors.
During Trump's first term, China-US trade relations experienced several shocks due to the trade war. At that time, the Trump administration imposed high tariffs on billions of dollars' worth of Chinese imports in an attempt to reduce the trade deficit and force China to carry out structural economic reforms. With Trump's victory in this election, it is highly likely that similar or even tougher trade policies will be introduced again. According to reports, during his campaign, he stated that if re-elected, he would impose tariffs on major U.S. trading partners, with a proposed 60% tariff on Chinese imports and 10% - 20% tariffs on imports from other countries. This will undoubtedly bring a huge impact on global trade.
For China's foreign trade, challenges and opportunities coexist. On the one hand, if Trump implements high-tariff policies, China's exports to the United States may face certain pressure. Take textile and apparel products as an example. China occupies a large share of the U.S. market in this area. High tariffs will lead to an increase in the costs of U.S. importers, which may in turn reduce China's exports of related products. Meanwhile, some Chinese foreign trade enterprises that rely on the U.S. market may need to readjust their market layouts and reduce their dependence on the U.S. market. On the other hand, in recent years, China has been actively promoting the diversified layout of foreign trade and has continuously deepened cooperation with major trading partners such as ASEAN and the European Union. This will relieve the impact brought by the U.S. tariff hikes to some extent and also provide opportunities for Chinese foreign trade enterprises to explore new market spaces.
From a global perspective, Trump's trade policies will also pose challenges to foreign trade enterprises in other countries. High tariffs may lead to an increase in global trade costs, an increase in trade barriers, and intensified trade frictions among countries. Some export-oriented Asian economies may be hit hard, and the competitiveness of their export products in the U.S. market will be weakened. However, this may also prompt countries to accelerate the adjustment of their trade structures and strengthen regional trade cooperation to cope with the impact brought by changes in U.S. trade policies.
The container shipping industry, as an important part of global trade, will also be affected by Trump's ascent to power. Some industry insiders analyze that policies such as tariff hikes and strengthened trade controls by the Trump administration will change the existing market pattern. Import commodity prices will face inflationary pressure, but the freight volume may remain stable or even grow. Trade routes may also change as enterprises try to avoid new tariffs, which will bring about an increase in the demand for container transportation.
In general, Trump's return to power will bring many uncertainties to global foreign trade. Governments and foreign trade enterprises of all countries need to closely monitor changes in U.S. trade policies and respond actively in order to seek development in the constantly changing trade environment. How the global trade pattern will evolve in the future remains to be seen.
