Recently, experts in the field of international trade and relevant institutions have conducted in-depth analyses and forecasts on the international trade situation in 2025. Global trade is expected to continue its recovery trend in the new year, yet it still faces numerous uncertainties.
According to the latest forecast by the World Trade Organization (WTO), despite issues such as geopolitical security and policy uncertainties, global merchandise trade is projected to achieve a 3% growth in 2025. This growth expectation is mainly based on the decline in the inflation rates of developed economies and the possible interest rate cuts by central banks of various countries, which will boost consumption and investment and, in turn, increase the demand for imports. Among them, Asian economies are expected to continue leading the trade recovery, especially countries like China, India, Vietnam and Singapore, whose export growth momentum is strong. In Asia, the booming development of artificial intelligence has driven the export of electronic products. For example, the semiconductor exports of economies like South Korea have been particularly outstanding.
However, the trade situation in Europe is relatively less optimistic. The slowdown in Europe's economic growth may reduce the demand for various goods, and its exports are also affected by the decline in major export products such as automobiles and chemicals. Germany, as an important economy in Europe, has underperformed economically, which has exerted a relatively large drag on Europe's trade.
From a global perspective, the situation of the industrial sector is expected to improve in 2025, which will provide strong support for the growth of international trade. Loose monetary policies, the turning point of the inventory cycle and the reduction in the drag on energy-intensive industries are the key factors driving the improvement of the industrial sector. With the improvement of the energy fundamentals, the energy supply challenges faced by enterprises will be alleviated, which will be conducive to increasing production and exports.
Nevertheless, international trade still faces some potential risks and challenges. Regional conflicts and geopolitical tensions remain the biggest uncertainties. In particular, the situation in the Middle East and other regions may indirectly affect global energy costs and shipping routes. In addition, the rise of trade protectionism also poses a threat to international trade. The outcome of the U.S. presidential election may have an impact on trade policies. If trade protectionist policies are further strengthened, it will bring shocks to global trade.
Nonetheless, with the continuous deepening of regional economic cooperation, such as the progress of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and the continuous implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative, more opportunities will be created for the development of international trade. These cooperations will promote the improvement of the level of trade liberalization and facilitation within the regions, strengthen economic and trade ties among countries and drive the stable growth of global trade.
Overall, the international trade situation in 2025 will continue to move forward on the path of recovery, but opportunities and challenges will coexist. All countries need to strengthen cooperation and jointly address challenges to promote the healthy development of international trade.
