Macroeconomic Trends
- Moderate Growth and Coexisting Uncertainties: According to the WTO's forecast, the growth of world merchandise trade is expected to be 3.3% in 2025. Driven by factors such as eased inflation and lower interest rates, there is still room for growth. However, due to geopolitical issues and trade protectionism, uncertainties remain high.
- Emerging Markets Leading Growth: Emerging markets in Asia, the Middle East, and South America will be the main driving forces behind global trade growth, presenting new market opportunities for foreign trade enterprises.
Trends in Markets and Trade Entities
- Diversification of Trading Partners: Against the backdrop of China-US trade frictions, the trend of diversifying trading partners in China is evident. The markets of emerging economies such as ASEAN, Africa, Latin America, and Russia are continuously expanding, reducing dependence on traditional markets.
- Enhanced Resilience of Private Trade Entities: Private enterprises in China have performed outstandingly in import and export. In the first 11 months of 2024, the total import and export volume of private enterprises increased by 7.78%, accounting for 54.28% of the total foreign trade value. In the face of external shocks, private enterprises have enhanced their resilience through various measures.
Trends in Trade Patterns
- Accelerated Integration of Domestic and Foreign Trade: China is promoting the integration of domestic and foreign trade. Through deepening reforms and building platforms for the integrated development of domestic and foreign trade, it is reducing barriers to factor flow and achieving mutual promotion between the domestic and international dual circulation, creating new room for foreign trade growth.
- Booming Development of New Business Forms such as Cross-border E-commerce: New foreign trade business forms and models such as cross-border e-commerce are developing rapidly. There are now more than 120,000 enterprise entities engaged in cross-border e-commerce business, among which 16,000 have been recognized as high-tech enterprises, becoming an important force driving foreign trade growth.
Trends in Supply Chains and Services
- Localization and Diversification of Supply Chains: In response to uncertainties, trends such as localization, nearshoring, and friendshoring have emerged in supply chains. Enterprises are dispersing their supply chains across different markets to reduce risks.
- Growth of Service Trade and Digital Transformation: The proportion of service trade in global trade will continue to rise, especially for digitally delivered services. At the same time, enterprises are using digital technologies to improve operational efficiency and service quality.
Trends in Products and Competition
- High-end and Green Development: Chinese foreign trade products are shifting towards high value-added. For example, the export of high-end equipment is growing rapidly, with an expected growth of about 40% in 2024. In addition, sustainable development has become a global consensus, and the importance of green products and environmental protection standards in trade is becoming increasingly prominent.
- Branding and Customization: Consumer demand for branded and personalized products is increasing. Enterprises are paying more attention to brand building and customized services to meet the needs of different markets and customers.
