Analysis of Recent Economic News
I. The US Economy
According to the Beige Book released by the Federal Reserve on January 15th, the economic activities in the 12 Federal Reserve Districts of the United States showed a slight or moderate increase from late November to December. Consumer spending rose moderately, and holiday sales were strong, exceeding expectations. However, overall construction activities declined, manufacturing decreased slightly, and residential real - estate activities remained generally unchanged. High mortgage rates continued to suppress demand. In terms of prices, overall prices increased slightly, and it is expected that prices will continue to rise in 2025. The better - than - expected US employment data has rapidly cooled the market's expectations of a Fed rate cut. Some even believe that the rate - cut cycle has ended. At the same time, the yield on the 10 - year US Treasury bond has reached a new high, bringing uncertainty to the global economy. Nevertheless, the US economic fundamentals remain robust, with huge growth potential. It is expected to continue to grow steadily in the future, but the growth rate may slow down.
II. The European Economy
The consumer expectations survey released by the European Central Bank on January 7th, 2025, shows that the inflation expectation for the next year increased from 2.5% in October to 2.6% in November, and the inflation expectation three years later also rose from 2.1% to 2.4%. However, the economic growth expectation has shown a negative change, with the expected economic growth rate for the next year being - 1.3%, a decrease compared to - 1.1% previously. In recent years, the European economy has been affected by factors such as the debt crisis and geopolitics. Although its economic resilience remains strong, it faces many challenges, such as the uncertainty brought about by Brexit, the economic differences within the eurozone, and geopolitical risks. In the future, it needs to overcome these challenges to achieve stable growth.
III. The Asian Economy
Asian stock market investors are relatively pessimistic at the beginning of 2025, worried about the risks of Trump's promised tariff hikes and the strengthening of the US dollar. Asian stock markets are expected to underperform the US stock market at least in the first quarter of this year. However, the Chinese economy shows a positive trend. At the beginning of 2025, China's proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy are coordinated, and various policies work together to continuously consolidate the foundation for economic stability. The consumer market has generally rebounded. Activities such as the National Time - honored Brands Carnival and the National Online New Year Goods Festival have been innovative, driving the popularity of consumer goods. In January, China's retail industry prosperity index rose to 51.1%. The "China Travel" trend continues to be booming, and the number of foreign visitors during the New Year's Day holiday increased by nearly 34% year - on - year.
